§ Record renewables

In 2025, both solar and wind power generation continued their recent rapid growth, according to Ember. 

Solar saw a record increase, with global generation growing by 636 terawatt hours (TWh)  – double the total annual electricity demand of the UK. This was 33% higher than the previous solar record growth, set just the year before (479TWh).

Global solar growth in 2025 alone exceeded the electricity that could be generated from all liquid natural gas (LNG) exports through the strait of Hormuz that year, Ember notes. This amounted to 81m tonnes (Mt) or around 550TWh of gas-fired electricity.

Solar in 2025 represented the largest annual increase of any individual electricity source ever, Ember says, with the exception of the rebound in coal generation after the Covid-19 pandemic in 2021 (719TWh). 

The continued growth of solar generation last year reflects structural capacity expansion rather than fluctuations in demand. Moreover, 2025 was the fourth year in a row that solar recorded the largest absolute growth of any electricity source. 

Solar capacity grew by a record 647 gigawatts (GW) in 2025. This suggests that the technology will continue to dominate generation growth in the coming years, says Ember.

Wind saw the second-largest increase in generation, growing 205TWh (8.2%) in 2025. This was the same rate as seen in 2024, but fell slightly below the record absolute increase seen in 2021 of 265TWh. 

Nuclear rose moderately by 35TWh (1.3%), bringing it to an all-time high of 2,812TWh. This was driven by reactors coming online in China (37TWh), as well as increased output in France (12TWh) and Japan (9TWh), which balanced out reductions elsewhere. 

However, despite nuclear generation growth, both solar and wind are expected to overtake the technology in 2026, as shown in the chart below. 

Increasingly, solar and wind are dominating the electricity generation mix. This allowed renewable technologies, collectively, to surpass coal in the first six months of 2025, before successfully overtaking it across the whole year, as shown in Ember’s report.

This marks the first time in history that coal power accounted for less than a third of global electricity generation, it says.

In addition, for the first time, the growth of clean-power sources has pushed fossil-fuel generation into reverse, as shown in the chart below.

While there have been annual declines in fossil-fuel generation in the past, these were all caused by economic crises or other one-off shocks, such as the global financial crisis in 2008-9 or the coronavirus pandemic in 2020.

§ Tipping points

The share of wind and solar power in the global electricity mix has risen by more than 10 percentage points over the past decade, from 23% to 33.8%, according to Ember. Over the same time period, the share of coal has dropped from 38.7% to 33.0% in 2025.

Indeed, 81% of all wind and solar generation growth since 2000 occurred over the past 10 years. In contrast, only 27% of fossil-fuel growth since 2000 happened over the past 10 years, as the balance continues to tip towards renewables.

Had wind and solar not grown since 2000, electricity generation from fossil fuels would have been 30% higher in 2025 and emissions 28% higher, Ember says, adding 4,065Mt of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) annually. 

It says that the expected growth in clean power will tip fossil-fuel use in the power sector firmly into decline, as well as “aiding decarbonisation in other sectors”.

Renewables have overtaken coal in every region of the world, except Asia. Coal power fell by 63TWh (-0.6%) in 2025. However, at 10,476TWh, coal remained the largest single source of electricity globally. 

Gas generation saw a small increase of 36TWh (0.5%) to 6,919TWh in 2025. 

Despite Asia being the only region where coal generation has not been overtaken by renewables, two of the world’s biggest emitters on the continent did see fossil-fuel generation fall. 

Fossil generation fell in both China (-56TWh/-0.9%) and India (-52TWh/-3.3%) due to rapid clean-power deployment and moderate demand growth, according to Ember. 

This is in line with analysis for Carbon Brief earlier this year, which also found that coal power fell in China and India concurrently for the first time in 52 years.

Combined, China and India made up 42% of global fossil-fuel generation in 2025, according to Ember, offsetting a small increase in the US, EU and other economies. 

In 1919, when electricity demand was 300 times smaller than in 2025, renewables – mostly hydropower – briefly exceeded coal power. 

Over the following 100 years, coal power remained the largest power source globally. Its share in the power mix was around 40% from the 1970s through to the mid-2010s.

The chart below shows the growth of renewables since 2000, has allowed the technologies to overtake coal generation in 2025. 

§ Emissions impact

The growth of clean power generation has helped to decouple demand growth from emissions growth, according to Ember’s report.

Global electricity demand grew by 2.8% (849TWh) in 2025. While this was significantly below the 4.3% growth seen in 2024, it was broadly in line with the 10-year average annual increase of 2.7%. 

Last year’s increase still represents the sixth-largest absolute annual rise ever recorded. 

Ember analysis suggests that if demand and clean electricity growth continue at their recent pace, then fossil-fuel generation will plateau before starting to decline consistently from the early 2030s.

With renewable energy growth pushing fossil fuels down in 2025, however, power-sector emissions fell slightly despite the increase in demand. 

In 2025, the average kilowatt hour produced globally resulted in emissions of 458gCO2e, some 2.7% less than in 2024 (471gCO2e) and down 16% from 2005 (543gCO2e).

Electrification of key sectors is expected to add to rising electricity demand in the coming years, Ember notes, pointing to transport and data centres.

(Note that while demand from electric vehicles and data centres is rising quickly, they are still “relatively slim” in terms of their contribution to overall growth, according to the International Energy Agency. Industry and buildings are the largest sources of growth.)

In 2025, electric vehicle (EV) sales reached more than 25% of the global car market. As a result, Ember says that EVs are becoming a “structural driver of electricity demand growth”, accounting for about 8% (66TWh) of the 849TWh rise in global electricity demand in 2025. This is up from 36TWh in 2024. 

In addition, the global EV fleet displaced 1.8m barrels per day (mbpd) of oil demand in 2025. New EVs alone in 2025 displaced 0.5mbpd. 

The oil demand displaced through additional transport electrification in 2025 will avoid roughly 80MtCO2e emissions annually, more than the annual power sector emissions of the UK, it says.

Further expansion of renewables to help meet growing demand from sectors such as transport is being supported by the rollout of storage technologies.

Falling battery prices are driving a rapid scale-up in deployments. Battery pack prices for stationary storage applications fell to a record low of $70/kWh in 2025, Ember says – a 45% drop from 2024.

Global battery storage capacity additions reached an estimated 247 gigawatt hours (GWh), up 46% year-on-year. This would be enough to shift about 14% of daily solar generation to other hours, up from 13% in 2024 and just 5% in 2022, according to Ember.

§ ‘Rapid’ assessment

The preliminary scientific report seen by Carbon Brief – titled, “Action insights for the Santa Marta process” – is the result of some rapid work by an “ad-hoc” group of around 24 scientists.

It is designed to present governments attending the talks with concrete and actionable recommendations for transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The preliminary version, which includes recommendations such as “halting all new fossil fuel expansion”, has already been circulated to governments, with a view that this could help them to prepare for the talks in advance.

It will be further debated and refined by scientists attending the academic segment of the Santa Marta talks, before a final version is made public towards the end of April, Carbon Brief understands.

The process to produce the report began shortly after the conclusion of the COP30 climate summit in Brazil in November, explains its lead author, Dr Friedrich Bohn, a research scientist and co-founder of the Earth Resilience Institute in Germany. He tells Carbon Brief:

“When [Brazil] announced there would be a Santa Marta conference led by Colombia and the Netherlands, I was sitting listening with a small group of scientists. We thought: ‘This is great news, but it should be supported by scientific expertise.’”

One of the members of Bohn’s group had a pre-existing relationship with the Colombian government, allowing a dialogue to quickly be established, he continues:

“In the beginning, the idea was to just write a peer-reviewed paper. But, because of this close connection to the Colombian government and some feedback from them, the synthesis paper evolved.”

The report came out of a “very rapidly evolved process” that relied on the “goodwill” and “enthusiasm” of the academics involved, adds coordinating author Prof Frank Jotzo, a professor of climate change economics at Australian National University. (Jotzo is a former Carbon Brief contributing editor.) He tells Carbon Brief:

“It’s an attempt to get broad coverage on relevant topics from researchers with good expertise and reputation.”

The group of 24 scientists involved spent around two months compiling the “action insights” for the report, drawing on their expertise and the latest available research, says Jotzo.

Given the rapid nature of the report, it does not aim to be “completist”, has not been externally reviewed and did not follow a stringent process for author selection comparable to that used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, he adds.

The contributors to the report currently skew to the global north and include more men than women, adds Bohn.

§ ‘Direct guidance’

In a departure from IPCC reports, the preliminary Santa Marta synthesis report offers “very direct guidance to action”, says Jotzo.

The report lists 12 “action insights”, each with three “action recommendations”. (The list was cut down from a shortlist of about 40-50 insights, Carbon Brief understands.)

One of the most striking in the draft is “action insight 5”, which says:

“Take immediate measures to prevent future emissions. Ban new fossil infrastructure, mandate deep methane cuts, accelerate electrification and inscribe fossil-fuel phase-down targets in NDCs [nationally determined contributions] and clean-energy pathways support to low and middle income countries (LMICs).”

The accompanying three “action recommendations” include “halting all new fossil-fuel extraction and infrastructure projects ahead of a final investment decision”, “implementing deep, legally binding methane cuts in the energy sector” and “inscrib[ing] targets for fossil-fuel phase down, electrification and green exports in NDCs”.

(The draft report includes multiple references to “phasing out” and “phasing down” fossil fuels, rather than the “transition away from fossil fuels” language that was, ultimately, agreed by countries at the COP28 UN climate talks in Dubai in 2023.)

Another action insight says “public support for climate action is broadly underestimated and undermined by interest groups, but it can be strengthened by debunking greenwashing narratives”.

One recommendation for this insight is that nations “reject natural gas as a bridging technology and CCS [carbon capture and storage] techniques as scalable compensation”.

In a letter introducing the report to governments and civil society, the scientists note that making direct recommendations is a “challenge for our community”, but added:

“However, in the spirit of a constructive collaboration between science and policymaking, we allowed ourselves to identify some potential courses of action that our community would recommend for each particular issue – and we invite you to weigh these against your own circumstances and pick up whatever seems most useful for you and your colleagues.”

The prescriptiveness of the recommendations – something strictly prohibited in IPCC reports – was an explicit request from the Colombian government, Bohn says:

“The idea of actionable recommendations was introduced by the Colombian government.

“There was some discussion within the team about this. It’s a tricky area when you leave science and move to consultation. Therefore, we agreed, in the end, to call them ‘actionable recommendations’ and to make them as precise as possible, from the scientific perspective.”

Jotzo, a veteran of the IPCC process, tells Carbon Brief that it was “very liberating” to work on a report with a “free-form process”:

“The bulk of policy-related research is very readily deployed to recommendations pointing out what countries could do. The IPCC process, for example, just doesn’t allow that. As far as the summary for policymakers in the IPCC is concerned, it will usually be governments that filter out anything that could be interpreted as a specific recommendation.”

He adds that the hope is that some of the action insights might be reflected in the high-level segment of the Santa Marta conference:

“No one is under any illusions that governments will walk away from the Santa Marta conference and will have made a decision to implement recommendations one, seven and nine – or something like that. But it is a chance to insert directly applicable action points into national and plurilateral policy agendas.”

§ Colombia calling

The preliminary report will be further debated and refined by scientists attending the “pre-academic segment” of the Santa Marta talks.

This is taking place from 24-26 April, ahead of the “high-level segment” involving ministers and other policymakers from 28-29 April.

The pre-academic segment will also separately see the launch of a new advisory panel on fossil-fuel transition and a scientifically led roadmap for how Colombia can transition away from fossil fuels, Carbon Brief understands.

The high-level segment is expected to be attended by representatives from around 50 countries, including COP31 host Turkey and major oil-and-gas producers such as the UK, Canada, Australia, Brazil and Norway.

Countries expected to attend account for one-third of global fossil-fuel demand and one-fifth of global production, according to the Colombian government.

At the end of the conference, countries are due to release a report featuring a “menu of solutions” for transitioning away from fossil fuels, according to Colombia’s environment minister Irene Vélez Torres.

This report is in turn set to inform a global “roadmap” on transitioning away from fossil fuels being developed by the Brazilian COP30 presidency, which is due to be presented at COP31 in Turkey this November.

The Brazilian COP30 presidency offered to bring forward a “voluntary” fossil-fuel transition “roadmap” outside of the official COP process, after countries failed to formally agree to one during negotiations in Belém.

§ This week

Oil prices rebound

OIL UP AGAIN: Oil prices surged by more than 7% and back above $100 a barrel on Monday after US-Iran peace talks faltered and US president Donald Trump ordered the blockading of Iranian ports, reported BBC News. The jump came after prices fell last week in the wake of the announcement of a conditional two-week ceasefire, it said.

RESCUE PLANS: European countries unveiled plans to protect citizens and businesses from rising energy prices. Ireland announced a support package worth €505m, reported BBC News, while Germany agreed on measures worth €1.6bn, said Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on a draft EU proposal due to be unveiled next week that would see the bloc reduce electricity prices and roll out clean energy more quickly in response to the crisis.

UNSOLICITED ADVICE: Trump renewed his criticism of UK energy policy and called on the government to “drill, baby drill”, reported the Independent. Via social media, the president said: “Europe is desperate for energy, and yet the United Kingdom refuses to open North Sea oil, one of the greatest fields in the world. Tragic!!!” (See Carbon Brief’s recent factcheck of various false claims about the North Sea.) 

§ Around the world

• C-WORD: Faced with pressure from the US, countries attending spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank were urged to “not mention the climate”, reported the Guardian. It added that plans to agree a new “climate change action plan” for the World Bank “may be shelved, along with substantive discussion of the climate crisis”.
• NEW DIRECTION: Péter Magyar’s landslide victory over Victor Orbán in Hungary’s elections “presents new opportunities for the country to reduce emissions and invest in clean energy”, reported Time. Carbon Brief explored what it means for European climate action.
• ‘FURNACE’ SUMMER: There was widespread coverage – including in the Boston Globe, ABC News, CNN, Euro Weekly News, Guardian and New Scientist – of warnings from meteorologists of the development of a “super” El Niño phenomenon that could ramp up temperatures and drive extreme weather.
• ANTALYA COP: The Turkish government unveiled the dates and venues for the “leaders’ summit” segment of November’s COP31 conference, according to Climate Home News.
• PACIFIC PRE-COP: Meanwhile, the Guardian reported that Tuvalu will host a special meeting of world leaders before the climate summit in Antalya.

§ €10bn a year

The amount of state support that French prime minister Sébastien Lecornu has pledged for electrification through to 2030 in a bid to reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels. In a speech late on Friday 10 April, Lecornu noted the figure amounted to a “doubling” of existing support. 

§ Latest climate research

• Over a four-month period of 2023, more than 70% of editorials discussing net-zero in four right-leaning UK newspapers included “at least one misleading statement”  | Climate Policy
• Air pollution from global transport which damages human health currently has a cooling effect that offsets 80% of the warming impact of the sector’s CO2 emissions | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science
• The incorporation of “observational constraints” into climate-model projections suggests that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by 50% by 2100 in a medium-emissions scenario | Science Advances

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

§ Captured

Analysis by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) found that global electricity generation from fossil fuels fell in the first month of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Across all countries with real-time electricity data outside of China, coal-fired power generation fell 3.5% and gas-fired power generation fell 4.0%, according to CREA. This was offset by a rise in solar power and wind generation, which increased by 14% and 8%, respectively. Hydropower generation also saw a small increase, the analysis showed, but this was “more than offset” by a drop in nuclear power generation.

§ Spotlight

How climate change affects Afghan lives

This week, Carbon Brief reports on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, following deadly floods this year.

Earlier this month, heavy rains, flash floods and landslides struck large parts of Afghanistan, damaging thousands of homes, destroying crops, bridges and roads and taking nearly 100 lives. 

The flooding – reported to have affected 74,000 people in 31 of 34 provinces –  is the latest weather-related catastrophe to afflict the nation, whose communities have suffered the brunt of repeated flash floods, droughts and landslides in recent years.

Hameed Hakimi, non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, told Carbon Brief the recent floods would hurt livelihoods and food security, noting reports of destroyed wheat and rice crops in the most affected eastern parts of the country. He said:

“This is common. For at least a decade now, [we have seen] these flash floodings and the damage that happens to rural life, farming, the disruption to crops…Flash flooding physically eats up the land. So, it not only damages where people live, but also people’s livelihoods, based on what they grow.”

The damage to crops will be felt acutely, he explained, given that food security in the landlocked nation is already strained by the blockage of its main transit trade artery through Pakistan and international sanctions that have frozen long-term development aid.

Speaking to Carbon Brief, Abdulhadi Achakzai, founding CEO of the Environmental Protection Trainings and Development Organization (EPTDO), an Afghan NGO, described flooding in Afghanistan as a “chronic situation”.

Achakzai, whose organisation runs projects that help urban and rural communities adapt to climate impacts, says climate change hurts the country in four key ways: extreme drought; extreme temperature; “natural hazards”, including landslides and dust storms; and, finally, flash flooding. He said:

“Climate change is a serious matter in Afghanistan. Every nation and every corner within this country is severely affected.”

Ranked 176 of 187 on the University of Notre Dame “global adaptation index”, Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change.

Average temperature across the country has increased from 12.2C in 1960 to 14.2C in 2024, according to the World Bank’s climate change knowledge portal. Drought is widespread, severe and persistent – harming food and water security in a nation of subsistence farmers.

Meanwhile, extreme weather events are the leading driver of internal displacement in the country. More than three-quarters of the 710,000 people who relocated within Afghanistan in 2024 did so driven by “environmental hazards”, such as drought and flood, according to a recent climate vulnerability assessment from the International Organization for Migration. 

Finance struggles

Despite feeling the impacts of extreme weather, Afghanistan has been barred from UN climate negotiations and had limited access to climate finance since 2021. (The government attended COP29 in Baku as guests of the Azerbaijan hosts, but did not take part in formal negotiations.)

This is because the international community does not recognise the Taliban government, which resumed power in 2021, due to its record on human rights and its repression of women and girls in particular. 

Almost all financing from key climate funds has been suspended, with the exception of a few projects where UN agencies and NGOs act simultaneously as a “requesting” and “implementation” partner.

Aid from UN climate funds fell from $5.9m annually over 2014-20 to $3.9m annually over 2021-24, according to recent analysis by the Berghof Foundation. Multilateral development banks provided a further $337m of funds badged as “climate finance” over 2021-23, it said. 

By comparison, Afghanistan’s national climate plan, submitted to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2016, requested $17.4bn in climate finance over 2020-30. An updated national climate plan seen by Carbon Brief – completed in 2021 and later endorsed by the Taliban government, but not accepted by member governments of the UNFCCC – called for $20.6bn through to 2030.

Achakzai, whose organisation attends the COP climate summit each year in an observer capacity, has in the past been the sole delegate from Afghanistan to the conference.

He is calling on the UNFCCC to accept the country’s latest climate plan – and to find an “alternative solution” that would give the people of the country a voice in negotiations. He said: 

“Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of people because of climate change-related matters. Every year we are losing hundreds, thousands of hectares of crops. We are affected by [the decisions of] other countries. Why are we not part of this process?”

§ Watch, read, listen

BLOSSOM WATCHER: The Guardian reported on the successful search to find a researcher to continue Japan’s 1,200-year cherry blossom record. 

COP OUT: Deutsche Welle spoke to experts to understand why India walked away from its bid to host COP33 in 2028.

‘BOMBS AND PORN’: The New Republic looked at who is set to benefit from the rapid build-out of energy-intensive AI datacentres.

§ Coming up

• 20-24 April: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) working group one report author meeting, Santiago, Chile
• 22 April: Earth day
• 22 April: Launch of third edition of the Lancet Countdown’s Europe report
• 24-29 April: First conference on transitioning away from fossil fuels, Santa Marta, Colombia

§ Pick of the jobs

• International Organization for Migration, senior thematic associate (climate action) | Salary: UN G-6 salary grade | Location: Dakar, Senegal
• Climate Action Network UK, several board member roles | Salary: Unknown. Location: Unknown 
• UK Department for Energy, Food and Rural Affairs, G7 science lead | Salary: £56,375. Location: Bristol, London, Newcastle-upon-Tyne or York, UK
• Save the Children UK, senior climate change advisor | Salary: £62,000-£65,000. Location: London

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

§ What was Orbán’s approach to climate action?

Hungary has had a mixed record on climate change under then prime minister Orbán, supporting some relevant actions while opposing others – particularly those taken at an EU level. This broadly reflects his Fidesz party’s populist and Eurosceptic leanings.

Orbán has described the EU’s climate goals as a “utopian fantasy” that would “destroy the middle class”. He has also accused “western elites” of wanting people to “live in fear” of climate change.

Yet, despite being embraced by climate sceptics elsewhere and supporting climate-sceptic lobbyists, Orbán’s government has not overtly adopted such sceptical rhetoric.

In fact, reflecting broad Hungarian support for climate action, Orbán has framed his nation as a “climate champion” – albeit one taking a “pragmatic” approach. This was captured in his speech at the COP29 summit in 2024, when he said:

“We must continue advancing the green transition, while also maintaining our use of natural gas, oil and nuclear energy…Our climate policy should be guided by careful consideration and common sense, not by ideology, alarmism or panic.”

Domestically, Orbán’s government has pursued various climate goals, including a 2050 net-zero target, phasing out coal power by 2029 and supporting the expansion of solar power. 

§ What will be the new Hungarian government’s climate and energy policies?

Climate change was not a major issue in the April election and Magyar, the incoming prime minister, hardly mentioned it in his campaign.

However, the 243-page manifesto released by his Tisza party includes many climate-related proposals, such as home insulation, railway electrification and tackling drought.

The document says some of these measures – notably “energy modernisation and efficiency programmes” – will be funded with billions of euros in EU funds that have been frozen under Orbán. (See: How will the new government approach EU climate policy?) 

One notable pledge is to “double the share of renewable energy in domestic energy supply” by 2040. As the chart below shows, Hungary already generates three-quarters of its electricity from clean sources – predominantly Paks, its single nuclear power plant. 

Nearly a third of Hungary’s electricity comes from solar, which has benefited from supportive government schemes in recent years. In contrast, for years, the Orbán government blocked the construction of wind turbines, meaning there is virtually no wind power in Hungary.

The Tisza manifesto recognises this imbalance, stating that “we will abolish the unnecessary restrictions preventing the installation of new wind turbines”, while also supporting geothermal energy.

Energy prices are a key political issue in Hungary, as they are in many nations around the world. Orbán’s “utility cost reduction” has been a flagship policy for many years, capping household prices using large state subsidies.

During the election, Orbán accused his opponent of planning to get rid of the energy price cap. In fact, the Tizsa manifesto says the new government will “maintain and expand” the scheme and add new VAT cuts on firewood.

Despite having few batteries and electric vehicles (EVs) domestically, Hungary has emerged in recent years as a major battery manufacturer, driven by Chinese and South Korean investment. However, this boom has sparked environmental and social concerns.

Zsolt Lengyel, co-founder and general secretary of the Institute for European Energy and Climate Policy (IEECP), tells Carbon Brief:

“Orbán’s battery and EV strategy – in theory, a flagship of the transition – has backfired politically…So Tisza inherits a paradox: it needs to accelerate the transition, but does so in an environment where parts of that transition have already lost public legitimacy.”

With much still unknown about Magyar’s attitude to climate and energy policy, some Hungarian experts that Carbon Brief spoke to cautioned against “speculation” and “wishful thinking” when assessing his climate credentials.

§ How will the new government approach EU climate policy?

There is cautious optimism among EU officials and leaders that a Hungarian government led by Magyar will be more cooperative on EU-led initiatives.

Under Orbán, Hungary has been a vocal and persistent opponent of EU climate policies.

Since 2011, 21 of all the 48 vetoes on joint EU actions have been used by Hungary. These include blocking efforts to sanction Russia following the country’s invasion of Ukraine. (See: What has the new leadership said about Russian fossil fuels?)

Among other issues, Hungary has vetoed or obstructed progress on the EU’s 2050 net-zero target, the “fit for 55” legislative package to help meet that goal and the 2035 ban on petrol and diesel cars.

Generally, this opposition did not totally block these policies, as most did not require unanimous agreement among EU member states. However, it did tend to slow down or complicate the process. Hungary was also not acting alone – it was often joined by fellow eastern and central European states, claiming the policies would have high costs.

Nevertheless, the Orbán government’s aversion to the EU has taken it further than other states. In recent months, for example, Hungary has launched a legal case against the EU over its phaseout plan for Russian oil and gas imports.

In this context, Lengyel tells Carbon Brief:

“Orbán’s exit removes Hungary’s most damaging feature in EU climate politics: the ideological reflex to oppose ‘anything Brussels does’.”

However, just because Magyar is less hostile to the EU does not mean his government will be a climate leader. 

Magyar’s centre-right Tisza party is aligned with the European People’s Party (EPP) grouping in the European parliament, which has been instrumental in weakening EU climate goals in recent months. Given this, Lengyel tells Carbon Brief.

“Let’s be clear: this is not a progressive pivot. Tisza sits close to the EPP mainstream and is unlikely to challenge it. If anything, it will follow it, including on any watering down of green-deal elements.”

Crucially, Hungary is entitled to billions of euros of EU funds that have been blocked due to breaches of conditions regarding the rule of law and human rights under Orbán. 

These include €9.5bn for Hungary’s recovery and resilience plan, the EU’s post-Covid recovery fund, much of which is earmarked for the “green transition”. 

This finance needs to be disbursed before the end of August – and both Magyar and the EU have been clear that unlocking the funds is a priority.

Jozsef Feiler, director of the south-east Europe and Hungary programme at the European Climate Foundation, which funds Carbon Brief, says “full EU compliance” will be crucial for Hungary over the coming months, in order to obtain these funds. He tells Carbon Brief:

“The economic and financial stability of the new government [will depend] on obtaining the recovery and resilience facility funds and managing some kind of absorption before the 26 August hard deadline.”

Another early challenge will be the new government’s approach to the new part of the EU’s emissions trading scheme (ETS) – known as ETS2 – which will put a price on emissions from buildings, cars and other sources not covered in the original ETS.

ETS2 is already facing criticism from member states concerned about rising fuel costs. Moreover, Hungary is likely to be one of the countries that is most exposed to high fossil-fuel prices.

István Bart, a senior director in carbon pricing at the Environmental Defence Fund, tells Carbon Brief that Orbán’s government has done little to help with the implementation of ETS2, which is currently due to start in 2028. He notes that, with the question of affordability so fraught in Hungary, it is unclear how Magyar will tackle this issue.

§ What has the new leadership said about Russian fossil fuels?

One of the most notable policy statements made in Tisza’s manifesto is a commitment that:

“By 2035, we will eliminate Russian energy dependence and diversify our domestic energy supply.”

Despite its relatively clean electricity supply, Hungary is still heavily reliant on fossil fuels – including in its transport, heating and industrial sectors – the majority of which are imported.

Russia is Hungary’s main fossil-fuel trading partner, with the Druzhba and TurkStream pipelines supplying much of the smaller nation’s needs for oil and gas, respectively. 

Among EU member states, Hungary is second only to Slovakia in terms of reliance on Russian fossil fuels. In 2024, 74% of Hungary’s gas and 48% of its oil were imported from Russia, as shown in the chart below.

Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, most EU nations have taken steps to reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels. 

The EU has implemented a series of sanctions on Russia and the European Commission launched the REPowerEU plan to “fully end dependency on Russian energy”.

Under Orbán, however, Hungary has obstructed efforts to wean the EU off Russian fossil fuels, citing energy-security concerns. It has successfully negotiated exemptions from Russian oil sanctions, allowing the country to increase its reliance on cheap Russian crude.

The REPowerEU regulation involves a ban on Russian pipeline gas by September 2027. Unlike sanctions, the EU did not need unanimity among states to pass this. 

It is notable that Tisza has only committed to end reliance on Russian energy by 2035 – eight years after the EU deadline. It is unclear how Magyar’s new government will negotiate this discrepancy, especially given long-term contracts with Russian suppliers.

Hungary also relies on Russia for nuclear technology and supplies of uranium for its nuclear plant. In its manifesto, Tisza says it will explore the possibility of sourcing nuclear fuel from US or French suppliers, as well as building small modular reactors.

Orbán had already started pursuing diversified nuclear and fossil-fuel supplies by buying from the US, even as it secured exemptions from US sanctions on Russian energy imports. It is possible that Tisza may maintain this approach.

However, with the Iran war and energy crisis looming in recent months, Bart, from EDF, tells Carbon Brief:

“Before the Iran war started, you could have said: ‘Why don’t you just buy LNG [liquified natural gas]?’…Now it seems like less of an option, so, unfortunately, in the short term, [Russian gas] has to stay because we don’t really have an alternative.”

§ Key developments

Surge in grid investment

TRILLION-YUAN ERA: China’s two largest power grid operators invested a total of 167.5bn yuan ($24.5bn) in the first quarter of 2026, reported state broadcaster CCTV. State Grid said that during this period it spent more than 10bn yuan on connecting “new energy” projects to the grid, up 50% from last year, reported Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper. The two state-owned enterprises (SOEs) plan to invest 1tn yuan ($146bn) annually over the 15th five-year plan period (2026-2030), said finance news outlet Yicai. 

POWER CURBED: However, in what Bloomberg called a “clear signal that the grid is struggling to absorb all the extra power from the rapid growth in renewables”, solar and wind utilisation rates – the percentage of total power generated by a source that is used by the grid – fell again at the start of the year. They stood at 90.8% and 91.5%, respectively, in January and February 2026, according to a post by an SOE-linked research institute republished by energy news outlet International Energy Net. The rates are now “approaching [minimum] limits that the government had relaxed only two years ago”, added Bloomberg.

SIX PROVINCES SUPERVISED: A recent meeting of the National Energy Administration (NEA) concluded that China’s renewable installations had seen “steady growth” in 2026, adding that the body must make “sustained efforts” to “expand” investment in renewable power, reported International Energy Net. Separately, International Energy Net also said that the NEA will increase “supervision” of the power sectors in six provinces – Hebei, Jilin, Xinjiang, Fujian, Hunan and Guangdong. The outlet said this would entail scrutinising how they implement “energy conservation and carbon reduction” tasks, with a “focus” on coal plants, how they construct large clean-energy bases and their consumption of new energy, as well as their power infrastructure and markets.

Conflict spurred cooperation with China

CHINA ‘WINNING’: In Vienna, Chinese climate envoy Liu Zhenmin told state news agency Xinhua that the Middle East conflict has created an urgent need for countries to rethink energy security strategies and accelerate the energy transition. Xinhua also cited Liu as warning against over-reliance on a single source of energy imports. Meanwhile, state broadcaster CCTV published a segment arguing that a “greener” system will “provide a strong guarantee” for energy security, although it did not mention the conflict. Several outlets have continued to highlight how low-carbon energy has helped China weather the conflict and boosted sales of Chinese technologies, including the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Associated Press, Indian Express, Washington Post and Bloomberg. Semafor said China was “winning the global energy war”.

MANY MEETINGS: United Arab Emirates crown prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Chinese president Xi Jinping discussed how to “prevent further impacts” from the conflict on energy security, said Xinhua. Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said he addressed “regional energy security” with Chinese premier Li Qiang, reported Reuters. A post by China-Russia Information Net on nationalist media outlet Guancha quoted a Chinese diplomat in Russia telling reporters that “current dramatic changes in the international situation” are causing the two countries to discuss “further energy cooperation”. The Philippines is continuing to consider “oil and gas cooperation” with China, despite territorial disputes, Reuters also reported.

‘PROFOUND’ IMPACTS: Energy administration head Wang Hongzhi wrote a chapter in a “study guide” to the 15th five-year plan, published by industry outlet China Power News Net, in which he noted that “geopolitical conflicts are profoundly reshaping the global energy landscape”. He added that “traditional fossil fuels must continue to serve as a safety net while [China] simultaneously accelerates efforts to transition [to clean energy sources]”. Environment minister Huang Runqiu wrote in the CPPCC Daily, the official newspaper for the advisory body Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), that China will “earnestly” carry out “carbon peaking actions” in the next five years. Huang also said that, with “concerted efforts”, China’s 15th five-year plan targets are “achievable”.  

Petrochemical plan published

UPGRADE DEADLINE: China issued a plan for either upgrading or phasing out “outdated” petrochemical plants by 2029, reported Reuters. It added that the plan did not confirm explicitly “how many plants ​may be upgraded or phased out”. The news outlet Economic Daily said that, according to the document, China would focus on upgrading or phasing out outdated capacity “as determined in 2025”, while also developing a “long-term working system” for assessing the industry. According to the full document, published on the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) website, carbon-emission assessments were part of the selection criteria, with policymakers planning on “developing or revising” further standards for carbon emissions under the plan.

CHEMICAL OVERCAPACITY: The Paper quoted MIIT official Chang Guowu telling reporters that the plan will address the “low standards of design and construction” and “outdated processes” in older plants that lead to “significant” environmental risks. Xinhua said that, of China’s more than 27,000 petrochemical plants, “more than 1,600…outdated facilities” were reported in 2025, 600 of which required upgrading. Chemical news WeChat account WeLink Chemicals noted the policy was released against a backdrop of “overcapacity and declining demand for road transport fuels”, with the government having “stepped up efforts to curb overcapacity” in 2025.

More China news

• TARGET PLEDGED: China will cut the carbon intensity of its international shipping vessels by at least 15% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels, said climate outlet IdeaCarbon. It said China will also “significantly enhance” its influence in emission reduction talks at the International Maritime Organization.
• SANCHEZ VISITED: China and Spain “can contribute to finding solutions” for environmental issues, Spanish leader Pedro Sanchez told Xi Jinping, according to the Associated Press. Ahead of the meeting, Sanchez also argued China should play a more substantial role on climate change, said the Singapore-based Straits Times.
• CHINA COMMITTED: Huang Runqiu reaffirmed China’s support, “as always”, for global climate governance in a meeting with UN advisor Selwin Hart, said the Paper.
• FUNDING HALTED: The EU “quietly” approved a plan to prevent EU funds being provided to “clean technology projects containing Chinese inverters”, said the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post.
• AI UNVEILED: Chinese researchers developed a “first-of-its-kind artificial intelligence model designed to track carbon emissions”, reported Xinhua, adding that it “could shift the balance of power” in global climate negotiations, such as by quantifying the “embedded carbon” of products that developed countries import from China.
• CONTROLS CONSIDERED: China is deliberating “limiting exports” to the US of the equipment needed to make solar panels, according to Reuters.

§ Spotlight 

The debate over China’s bid to host the “high seas” treaty

The final preparatory commission for the Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) agreement has closed, laying the groundwork for the treaty’s first conference of the parties (COP1). 

One key agenda item was China’s presentation of a bid to host the secretariat. In this issue, Carbon Brief examines the debate surrounding the bid. 

The BBNJ agreement, also known as the High Seas Treaty, governs the sustainable use and conservation of the “high seas” – marine areas outside national jurisdictions – with a new United Nations (UN) body established to oversee enforcement.

As well as facing significant impacts from climate change, the ocean plays an important role as a carbon sink, absorbing around 29% of man-made emissions.

The treaty “recognis[es]” the need to address oceanic biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, according to previous Carbon Brief analysis, identifying key impacts from climate change, acidification, pollution and “unsustainable” use.

It aims to encourage conservation and sustainable use of marine biodiversity in the high seas, such as by managing “marine genetic resources”, creating protected areas in the ocean, developing environmental impact assessments and facilitating capacity-building and transfer of marine technology.

China’s bid

China’s bid to host the secretariat focused on its “sustainability efforts” and “commitment to multilateralism”, reported the Earth Negotiations Bulletin.

The country’s bid document drew attention to several of its emission-reduction efforts, including “green shipping corridors” and strengthening carbon sinks through protecting mangroves, seagrass beds and coral reefs.

In a speech, Chinese ambassador to the UN Fu Cong said that the bid “reflects China’s unwavering support” for multilateralism, adding that a successful Chinese bid would lead to the first UN-related body headquartered in the Asia Pacific region. He said:

“That means it will not only be welcomed, but also be prioritised. It will have the full backing from all levels of government in China and its people.”

Li Shuo, director at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s China climate hub, attended the meetings. He said in a note that China’s decision to bid “reportedly came from [President] Xi Jinping”, galvanising a coordinated cross-ministry effort to secure host the secretariat. 

Creating debate

China entering the race has caused a stir.

As host, it could inhibit “robust environmental safeguards” by “embedding elements of its domestic governance model” into how the treaty operates, wrote Dr Chime Youdon, research fellow at India’s National Maritime Foundation, on the organisation’s platform.

But such concerns are weakened by the fact that China would “want the treaty to function” if it were host, argued Prof Philippe Le Billon and Zelda Ladefoged, professor and master’s student at the University of British Columbia, in an article for the Conversation. 

Nevertheless, they noted “sustained” worries around China’s influence, given the extensive involvement of its companies in distant-water fishing and deep-sea mining, which are not covered in the treaty. 

Li told Carbon Brief that, as far as he saw, no-one was “actively pushing back against” the bid on any of the above grounds. Instead, he observed “anxieties” around “accreditation, information security and visa and conference participation issues”.

Daniel Kachelriess, cross-cutting coordinator at the High Seas Alliance, an umbrella group of non-governmental organisations focused on ocean governance, echoed this in comments to Carbon Brief. He said “values like neutrality and impartiality, transparency and accountability” are important for the decision, as well as practical issues such as “reliable” internet access. 

The Financial Times reported that Chinese delegates have offered immunity to attendees and flexibility around visas, citing unnamed sources.

But a successful Chinese bid could be a “significant escalation” of China’s involvement in global environmental governance, wrote Le Billon and Ladefoged.

As such, the BBNJ could prove a “case study” of sustaining environmental progress without the US and of China “learning to translate its ambitions into leadership”, said Li.

§ Watch, read, listen

PROFIT PRESSURE: The Economic Observer investigated how higher profit remittance requirements for state-owned enterprises is placing pressure on the balance sheets of power, coal and other energy companies.

CARNEY’S CALCULUS: The Wire China Podcast discussed how a deteriorating relationship with the US affected Canada’s approach to importing Chinese electric vehicles.

AFRICAN SOLAR: Climate Home News interviewed a renewables company working in Africa about what the end of Chinese solar export rebates could mean for the continent.

FUEL PRICE WOES: The New York Times published a video about how rising diesel prices are hitting China’s long-haul truck drivers hard.

§ 140%

The year-on-year rise in March in exports of Chinese new-energy vehicles (NEVs, including both plug-in hybrids and pure electric vehicles), reported Bloomberg, citing renewed interest caused by the “global energy shock stemming from the Iran war”.

§ -14%

The year-on-year fall in March in domestic sales of Chinese NEVs, reported Yicai, citing “changes to the NEV purchase tax exemption and the overlapping effects of the Chinese New Year holiday”.

§ New science 

• Between 1978 and 2023, emissions of “gaseous reactive nitrogen” – including ammonia and nitrous oxide – from croplands in China more than doubled | PNAS
• There are “disparities in [the] energy transition” between households in rural China, with small, low-income households and areas in the Loess plateau facing a “disproportionate energy burden and energy poverty” | Communications Earth and Environment

§ Recently published on WeChat

• 嘉宾来稿：云量减少如何加速全球变暖

• 嘉宾来稿：煤炭开采方式的转变如何影响中国的甲烷排放

China Briefing is written by Anika Patel, with contributions from Lekai Liu, and edited by Simon Evans. Please send tips and feedback to china@carbonbrief.org 

§ ‘Rapid intensification’

Tropical cyclones are rapidly rotating storm systems that form over warm ocean waters, characterised by low pressure at their cores and sustained winds that can reach more than 120 kilometres per hour. 

The term “tropical cyclones” encompasses hurricanes, cyclones and typhoons, which are named as such depending on which ocean basin they occur in.

When they make landfall, these storms can cause major damage. They accounted for six of the top 10 disasters between 1900 and 2024 in terms of economic loss, according to the insurance company Aon’s 2025 climate catastrophe insight report.

These economic losses are largely caused by high wind speeds, large amounts of rainfall and damaging storm surges.

Storms can become particularly dangerous through a process called “rapid intensification”. 

Rapid intensification is when a storm strengthens considerably in a short period of time. It is defined as an increase in sustained wind speed of at least 30 knots (around 55 kilometres per hour) in a 24-hour period.

There are several factors that can lead to rapid intensification, including warm ocean temperatures, high humidity and low vertical “wind shear” – meaning that the wind speeds higher up in the atmosphere are very similar to the wind speeds near the surface.

Rapid intensification has become more common since the 1980s and is projected to become even more frequent in the future with continued warming. (Although there is uncertainty as to how climate change will impact the frequency of tropical cyclones, the increase in strength and intensification is more clear.)

Marine heatwaves are another type of extreme event that are becoming more frequent due to recent warming. Like their atmospheric counterparts, marine heatwaves are periods of abnormally high ocean temperatures.

Previous research has shown that these marine heatwaves can contribute to a cyclone undergoing rapid intensification. This is because the warm ocean water acts as a “fuel” for a storm, says Dr Hamed Moftakhari, an associate professor of civil engineering at the University of Alabama who was one of the authors of the new study. He explains:

“The entire strength of the tropical cyclone [depends on] how hot the [ocean] surface is. Marine heatwave means we have an abundance of hot water that is like a gas [petrol] station. As you move over that, it’s going to supercharge you.”

However, the authors say, there is no global assessment of how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves interact – or how they contribute to economic damages.

Using the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) – a database of tropical cyclone paths and intensities – the researchers identify 1,600 storms that made landfall during the 1981-2023 period, out of a total of 3,464 events. 

Of these 1,600 storms, they were able to match 789 individual, land-falling cyclones with economic loss data from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and other official sources. 

Then, using the IBTrACS storm data and ocean-temperature data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the researchers classify each cyclone by whether or not it underwent rapid intensification and if it passed near a recent marine heatwave event before making landfall.

The researchers find that there is a “modest” rise in the number of marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones globally since 1981, but with significant regional variations. In particular, they say, there are “clear” upward trends in the north Atlantic Ocean, the north Indian Ocean and the northern hemisphere basin of the eastern Pacific Ocean.

§ ‘Storm characteristics’

The researchers find substantial differences in the characteristics of tropical cyclones that experience rapid intensification and those that do not, as well as between rapidly intensifying storms that occur with marine heatwaves and those that occur without them. 

For example, tropical cyclones that do not experience rapid intensification have, on average, maximum wind speeds of around 40 knots (74km/hr), whereas storms that rapidly intensify have an average maximum wind speed of nearly 80 knots (148km/hr).

Of the rapidly intensifying storms, those that are influenced by marine heatwaves maintain higher wind speeds during the days leading up to landfall. 

Although the wind speeds are very similar between the two groups once the storms make landfall, the pre-landfall difference still has an impact on a storm’s destructiveness, says Dr Soheil Radfar, a hurricane-hazard modeller at Princeton University. Radfar, who is the lead author of the new study, tells Carbon Brief:

“Hurricane damage starts days before the landfall…Four or five days before a hurricane making landfall, we expect to have high wind speeds and, because of that high wind speed, we expect to have storm surges that impact coastal communities.”

They also find that rapidly intensifying storms have higher peak rainfall than non-rapidly intensifying storms, with marine heatwave-influenced, rapidly intensifying storms exhibiting the highest average rainfall at landfall.

The charts below show the mean sustained wind speed in knots (top) and the mean rainfall in millimetres per hour (bottom) for the tropical cyclones analysed in the study in the five days leading up to and two days following a storm making landfall. 

The four lines show storms that: rapidly intensified with the influence of marine heatwaves (red); those that rapidly intensified without marine heatwaves (purple); those that experienced marine heatwaves, but did not rapidly intensify (orange); and those that neither rapidly intensified nor experienced a marine heatwave (blue).

Dr Daneeja Mawren, an ocean and climate consultant at the Mauritius-based Mascarene Environmental Consulting who was not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that the new study “helps clarify how marine heatwaves amplify storm characteristics”, such as stronger winds and heavier rainfall. She notes that this “has not been done on a global scale before”.

However, Mawren adds that other factors not considered in the analysis can “make a huge difference” in the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones, including subsurface marine heatwaves and eddies – circular, spinning ocean currents that can trap warm water. 

Dr Jonathan Lin, an atmospheric scientist at Cornell University who was also not involved in the study, tells Carbon Brief that, while the intensification found by the study “makes physical sense”, it is inherently limited by the relatively small number of storms that occur. He adds:

“There’s not that many storms, to tease out the physical mechanisms and observational data. So being able to reproduce this kind of work in a physical model would be really important.”

§ Economic costs

Storm intensity is not the only factor that determines how destructive a given cyclone can be – the economic damages also depend strongly on the population density and the amount of infrastructure development where a storm hits. The study explains:

“A high storm surge in a sparsely populated area may cause less economic damage than a smaller surge in a densely populated, economically important region.”

To account for the differences in development, the researchers use a type of data called “built-up volume”, from the Global Human Settlement Layer. Built-up volume is a quantity derived from satellite data and other high-resolution imagery that combines measurements of building area and average building height in a given area. This can be used as a proxy for the level of development, the authors explain.

By comparing different cyclones that impacted areas with similar built-up volumes, the researchers can analyse how rapid intensification and marine heatwaves contribute to the overall economic damages of a storm.

They find that, even when controlling for levels of coastal development, storms that pass through a marine heatwave during their rapid intensification cause 93% higher economic damages than storms that do not.

They identify 71 marine heatwave-influenced storms that cause more than $1bn (inflation-adjusted across the dataset) in damages, compared to 45 storms that cause those levels of damage without the influence of marine heatwaves.

This quantification of the cyclones’ economic impact is one of the study’s most “important contributions”, says Mawren. 

The authors also note that the continued development in coastal regions may increase the likelihood of tropical cyclone damages over time.

§ Towards forecasting

The study notes that the increased damages caused by marine heatwave-influenced tropical cyclones, along with the projected increases in marine heatwaves, means such storms “should be given greater consideration” in planning for future climate change.

For Radfar and Moftakhari, the new study emphasises the importance of understanding the interactions between extreme events, such as tropical cyclones and marine heatwaves. 

Moftakhari notes that extreme events in the future are expected to become both more intense and more complex. This becomes a problem for climate resilience because “we basically design in the future based on what we’ve observed in the past”, he says. This may lead to underestimating potential hazards, he adds.

Mawren agrees, telling Carbon Brief that, in order to “fully capture the intensification potential”, future forecasts and risk assessments must account for marine heatwaves and other ocean phenomena, such as subsurface heat.

Lin adds that the actions needed to reduce storm damages “take on the order of decades to do right”. He tells Carbon Brief:

“All these [planning] decisions have to come by understanding the future uncertainty and so this research is a step forward in understanding how we can better refine our predictions of what might happen in the future.”

§ This week

Ceasefire causes oil price drop

CEASEFIRE SLUMP: Following the announcement on Tuesday of a two-week ceasefire agreement between Iran and the US and Israel, oil prices dropped below $96 per barrel, according to the Associated Press. However, price volatility resumed when a Saudi Arabian oil pipeline was hit just hours later, according to Reuters. 

CRISIS COMBINED: Reuters and other outlets covered comments made by the International Energy Agency’s Fatih Birol to Le Figaro, where he said that the current energy crisis is worse than those of “1973, 1979 and 2022 combined”. It added that Birol said the “world has never experienced ​a disruption to energy supply of such magnitude”. 

POLLUTERS PROFIT: The Guardian covered how the “worst polluters hold [the] world’s future in their hands as they benefit from higher fossil fuel prices”, but it added “global trends favour renewables”. The South China Morning Post reported that, according to experts, the diversification of energy sources is set to accelerate as the war continues to disrupt the world’s energy supplies.

Around the world

• CLIMATE GOALS PERIL: The UK opening new oil and gas fields in the North Sea “would imperil” international climate goals, experts told the Guardian. The warning came as the government pushed back against the speculation that it is set to approve new drilling projects, according to Sky News. 
• COP33 CHANGES: The Indian government has withdrawn its offer to host the COP33 climate summit, “following a review of its commitments for the year 2028”, reported Climate Home News. 
• ‘LONG-LASTING’ SHOCK: The Financial Times covered comments by EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen that the bloc was bracing for a “long-lasting” energy shock from the Iran war. Reuters reported that five EU countries have called for a windfall tax on energy companies’ profits in response to rising fuel prices.
• US BUDGET CUTS: US president Donald Trump’s 2027 budget proposal included targeting the “green new scam” with substantial cuts to energy and environment programmes, according to the Los Angeles Times.
• AFGHAN FLOODS: Since 26 March, at least 148 people have died and 216 have been injured due to heavy rains, floods, earthquakes and landslides in Afghanistan, reported Reuters.
• PENGUINS ENDANGERED: The “mass drowning” of emperor penguin chicks as sea ice melts due to climate change has led the International Union for Conservation of Nature to declare the species officially in danger of extinction, according to the Guardian. 

§ 86,120

The record number of battery electric vehicle sales registered in the UK in March, making up 22.6% of the total car market, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders. 

§ Latest climate research

• More than a quarter of the world’s population will face more frequent and severe hot-and-dry extreme events by 2100 under current climate policies | Geophysical Research Letters
• Climate change will increase wildfire exposure for nearly 10,000 species by the end of the century | Nature Climate Change
• A variety of climate hazards critically expose up to 30% of southern Africa to “environmental degradation” | PLOS One

(For more, see Carbon Brief’s in-depth daily summaries of the top climate news stories on Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.)

§ Captured

Carbon Brief analysis found that, since the beginning of the Iran war in late February, at least 60 countries have announced nearly 200 emergency energy-saving measures. Around 30 nations, from Norway to Zambia, have cut fuel taxes to help people struggling with rising costs, making this by far the most common domestic policy response to the crisis, said the analysis. Some countries have stressed the need to boost domestic renewable-energy construction, while others – including Japan, Italy and South Korea – have opted to lean more on coal, at least in the short term.

§ Spotlight

How drag is tackling climate change

This week, Carbon Brief looks at how some drag artists are using their performances to draw attention to climate change 

Back in 2005, veteran climate journalist Bill McKibben wrote that “what the warming world needs now is art, sweet art” to help “build a general consciousness about climate change”.

Since then, the topic of climate change has spread to a host of art forms, from literature and music through to comedy and film. 

One of the most recent art forms to take up the climate communication baton is drag, with performers using it as a “Trojan horse” to engage with audiences, according to Cheddar Gorgeous, a British drag performer. 

‘Joy inspires momentum’

Drag artists around the world have begun to draw attention to the climate movement, using creativity, entertainment and their platforms to engage with their audiences. 

In the UK, Cheddar Gorgeous declined a nomination for the British LGBT Awards due to its sponsorship by Shell and has made repeated calls for climate action. 

Speaking on the “climate quickie” TEDx podcast, she argued: 

“Drag can disrupt the master narratives that dictate our society. I love drag that makes you look at yourself and look at the world in a different way. And that can be deployed in all sorts of exciting ways.”

Drag has a proud history of disruption. As part of a TED talk titled, “Why joy is a serious way to take action”, US drag queen Pattie Gonia provided the audience with some “herstory” about the role of drag within protests. She said: 

“Since the birth of the queer rights movement, drag performers and trans people have always been on the forefront of organising and protesting and community building.

“When we had the statistics and the facts on the millions of queer people dying of AIDS, yet no one was joining our fight, drag performers turned pain into joy and, in doing so, welcomed millions more people to fight with us.”

Pattie Gonia is arguably the best-known drag artist to engage with climate change. She is currently touring her environmental drag show “SAVE HER!” and has, according to her website,  fundraised more than “$4.7m for LGBTQIA+, BIPOC and environmental non-profits”.

A key part of her message is the need for diversity and inclusion within the climate movement, adding that “our creativity is critical in this climate dilemma”. In her TED talk, she added: 

“The problem in the climate movement isn’t just the abundance of carbon; it is the lack of joy. The scientific facts, the doom and gloom, they scare people, they wake them up. But joy is what will get people out of bed every day to take more action.” 

Alongside Pattie Gonia, climate conversations are filtering into the wider drag movement, including being a topic repeatedly touched on in the highly successful TV drag contest, RuPaul’s Drag Race. 

This ranges from drag artist Asia O’Hara explaining what global warming is in season 10 – telling her fellow contestants: “Bitch, the ice is melting!” – to queens dancing to “97% of scientists and four out of four Drag Race judges agree” that climate change “is real” during a challenge in season 11. (Drag Race host RuPaul Andre Charles has faced criticism for reportedly allowing fracking on his Wyoming ranch.)

Drag is opening up the climate movement to a wider audience, promoting diversity, inclusion and creativity in the space, according to its advocates. For Pattie Gonia, a key part of climate action has to be joy, she added: 

“Joy provides an unbelievable opportunity to make the climate movement irresistible. Do not underestimate the power of joy. We deserve more than doom and gloom, because this is the only planet with a Beyoncé on it.” 

§ Watch, read, listen

COOPERATION OVER CHAOS: In the Indian Express, Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, argued that “climate cooperation offers a way out of energy price chaos”. 

ELECTRIC WORLD ORDER: On the Polycrisis podcast, Mark Blyth, a professor of international economics at Brown University, and Dr Naa Adjekai Adjei, a non-resident fellow, Africa, at the China Global South Project, discussed “what the US dollar has to do” with energy access in Africa.

‘THE RECKONING’: In the Equator, Mona Ali, associate professor of economics at the State University of New York, explored the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the “end of American hegemony”. 

Coming up

• 12 April: Hungarian elections 
• 12 April: Peruvian elections
• 13-18 April: World Bank and International Monetary Fund Spring Meetings, Washington, DC, US
• 14 April: IEA Oil Market Report launch

Pick of the jobs

• Global Witness, several climate change jobs | Salary: Varied. Location: London
• London School of Economics, policy fellow – climate, gender and inclusivity | Salary: £53,949-£62,160. Location: London
• Climate Group, senior manager, international policy and advocacy | Salary: £47,160-£49,930. Location: London
• WWF, Nedbank green trust manager | Salary: Unknown. Location: Cape Town or Johannesburg, South Africa
• Greenpeace Australia Pacific, creative producer | Salary: AU$101,272. Location: Australia
• The Fairness Project, climate policy researcher | Salary: $96,000. Location: Remote (US) 

DeBriefed is edited by Daisy Dunne. Please send any tips or feedback to debriefed@carbonbrief.org.

This is an online version of Carbon Brief’s weekly DeBriefed email newsletter. Subscribe for free here.

§ ‘Largest disruption’ 

On 28 February, the US and Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, triggering conflict across the Middle East and sending shockwaves around the world.

There have been numerous assaults on energy infrastructure, including an Iranian attack on the world’s largest LNG facility in Qatar and an Israeli bombing of Iran’s gas sites.

Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint in the Persian Gulf, is causing what the IEA has called the “largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market”. 

A fifth of the world’s oil and LNG is normally shipped through this region, with 90% of those supplies going to destinations in Asia. Without these supplies, fuel prices have surged.

Governments around the world have taken emergency actions in response to this new energy crisis, shielding their citizens from price spikes, conserving energy where possible and considering longer-term energy policies.

Even with a two-week ceasefire announced, the energy crisis is expected to continue, given the extensive damage to infrastructure and continuing uncertainties. 

§ Asian crunch

Carbon Brief has used tracking by the IEA, news reports, government announcements and internal monitoring by the thinktank E3G to assess the range of national responses to the energy crisis roughly one month into the Iran war.

In total, Carbon Brief has identified 185 relevant policies, announcements and campaigns from 60 national governments. 

As the map below shows, these measures are concentrated in east and south Asia. These regions are facing the most extreme disruption, largely due to their reliance on oil and gas supplies from the Middle East.

Nations including Indonesia, Japan, South Korea and India are already spending billions of dollars on fuel subsidies to protect people from rising costs. 

At least 16 Asian countries are also taking drastic measures to reduce fuel consumption. For example, the Philippines has declared a “state of national emergency”, which includes limiting air conditioning in public buildings and subsidising public transport.

Other examples from the region include the government in Bangladesh asking the public and businesses to avoid unnecessary lighting, Pakistan reducing the speed limit on highways and Laos encouraging people to work from home.

Europe – which was hit hard by the 2022 energy crisis due to its reliance on Russian gas – is less immediately exposed to the current crisis than Asia. However, many nations are still heavily reliant on gas, including supplies from Qatar.

The continent is already feeling the effects of higher global energy prices as countries compete for more limited resources. 

At least 18 European nations have introduced measures to help people with rising costs. Spain, which is relatively insulated from the crisis due to the high share of renewables in its electricity supply, nevertheless announced a €5bn aid package, with at least six measures to support consumers.

Many African countries, while also less reliant on direct fossil-fuel supplies via the Strait of Hormuz than Asia, are still facing the strain of higher import bills. Some, including Ethiopia, Kenya and Zambia, are also facing severe fuel shortages.

There have been fewer new policies across the Americas, which have been comparatively insulated from the energy crisis so far. One outlier is Chile, which is among the region’s biggest fuel importers and is, therefore, more exposed to global price increases.

§ Tax cuts

The most common types of policy response to the energy crisis so far have been efforts to protect people and businesses from the surge in fuel prices.

At least 28 nations, including Italy, Brazil and Australia, have introduced a total of 31 measures to cut taxes – and, therefore, prices – on fuel.

Even across Africa, where state revenues are already stretched, some nations – including Namibia and South Africa – are cutting fuel levies in a bid to stabilise prices.

Another 17 countries, including Mexico and Poland, have directly capped the price of fuel. Others, such as France and the UK, have opted for more targeted fuel subsidies, designed to support specific vulnerable groups and industries.

These measures are all shown in the dark blue “consumer support” bars in the chart below.

Such measures can directly help consumers, but some leaders, NGOs and financial experts have noted that there is also the risk of them driving inflation and reinforcing reliance on the existing fossil fuel-based system.

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank, spoke in favour of short-term measures to “smooth the shock”, but noted that “broad-based and open-ended measures may add excessively to demand”.

Measures to conserve energy, of the type that many developing countries in Asia have implemented extensively, have been described by the IEA as “more effective and fiscally sustainable than broad-based subsidies”.

So far, there have been at least 23 such measures introduced to limit the use of transport, particularly private cars. 

These include Lithuania cutting train fares, two Australian states making public transport free and Myanmar and South Korea asking people to only drive their cars on certain days.

§ Clean vs coal

At least eight countries have announced plans to either increase their use of coal or review existing plans to transition away from coal, according to Carbon Brief’s analysis. These include Japan, South Korea, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Thailand, Pakistan, Germany and Italy.

These measures broadly involve delaying coal-plant closure, as in Italy, or allowing older sites to operate at higher rates, as in Japan – rather than building more coal plants.

There has been extensive coverage of how the energy crisis is “driving Asia back to coal”. However, as Bloomberg columnist David Fickling has noted, this shift is relatively small and likely to be offset by a move to cheap solar power in the longer term.   

Indeed, some countries have begun to consider changes to the way they use energy going forward, amid a crisis driven by the spiralling costs of fossil-fuel imports.

Leaders in India, Barbados and the UK have explicitly stressed the importance of a structural shift to using clean power. Governments in France and the Philippines are among those linking new renewable-energy announcements with the unfolding crisis. 

New renewable-energy capacity will take time to come online, albeit substantially less time than developing new fossil-fuel generation. In the meantime, some nations are also taking short-term measures to make their road transport less reliant on fossil fuels.

For example, the Chilean government has enabled taxi drivers to access preferential credit for purchasing electric vehicles (EVs). Cambodia has cut import taxes on EVs and Laos has lowered excise taxes on them.

Finally, there have been some signs that countries are reconsidering their future exposure to imported fossil fuels, given the current economics of oil and gas. 

The New Zealand government has indicated that a plan to build a new LNG terminal by 2027 now faces uncertainty. Reuters reported that Vietnamese conglomerate Vingroup has told the government it wanted to abandon a plan to build a new LNG-fired power plant in Vietnam, in favour of renewables.

§ Key developments

Iran war and food systems

PLANTING AT RISK: The war in the Middle East “has hit the epicentre of global fertiliser production”, threatening both the spring planting season in the northern hemisphere and winter planting in Australia, according to a comment by the Daily Telegraph’s world economy editor. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard noted that the supply of urea, ammonia and sulphur transported through the Persian Gulf has been “shut off” for nearly a month. The world’s two largest fertiliser producers, China and Russia, have recently reduced fertiliser exports, he added.

COMING CRISIS: Fuel costs and food prices are skyrocketing in Asia and Africa as the Iran war unfolds, reported the Financial Times, ahead of the new “two-week ceasefire”. According to the outlet, the impacts “could be even bigger than the crisis triggered by Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine”. Even regions less directly exposed to the conflict, such as the US, “will feel the effects through higher [food] prices”, the outlet added.

CLIMATE FACTORS: New Scientist noted that the severity of the rise in food prices will depend on the length of the conflict and “how hard global warming-fuelled weather extremes” impact crops this year. A separate New Scientist piece pointed out that reducing farming’s dependence on fossil fuels could “prevent this from happening again [and] help slash the massive greenhouse gas emissions from farming”.

Nature talks outcomes 

CONSERVATION WINS: The 15th Conference of the Parties to the UN Convention on Migratory Species ended on 29 March with an agreement to add 40 migratory species, including cheetah, striped hyena and snowy owls, to the convention’s “protected list”, reported Down To Earth. The conference in Brazil also delivered plans for conserving multiple species that live in the same ecosystems, such as the Amazon. The convention’s executive secretary said the new conservation rules are expected to be implemented “immediately”, added the outlet.

MARINE PROTECTION: The conference was considered a “significant step forward” for marine species, as it reached a number of agreements, including commitments for reducing bycatch and a decision for countries to include “critical marine designations into their national biodiversity strategies”, reported Oceanographic. The meeting also adopted transboundary action plans for conserving the “critically endangered” European eel and the tope shark, it said.

HIGH SEAS MEETING: The final preparatory meetings for the High Seas Treaty ended on Friday with “meaningful progress in several key areas”, according to the Fishing Daily. Countries agreed on the “functioning of most subsidiary bodies” and several financial matters, but the “negotiations lost momentum toward the end of the session”, noted the outlet. The Financial Times reported that China is pushing to host the UN permanent body that will oversee High Seas Treaty talks. Earth Negotiations Bulletin reported that the treaty’s first summit will likely take place in New York in January 2027.

§ News and views

• FOREST LOSS: Deforestation in Indonesia surged by ​66% in 2025, hitting its highest rate in eight years as a “result of weak environmental protections and an ambitious ‌food and energy self-sufficiency drive”, said Reuters.
• DEFORESTATION REGULATION: Brazil introduced a new regulation last week requiring banks to use satellite data provided by the government to verify if borrowers of rural loans have deforested farmlands in the Amazon or other forests since July 2019, reported Folha de São Paulo.
• FACTORY FARMING: The UK government is overhauling planning rules to “make it easier to build intensive livestock farms despite concerns about water pollution, air quality and local opposition”, according to documents obtained under the freedom-of-information act by the Guardian.
• INITIATIVE ‘ABANDONED’: The European Commission has officially “abandoned” its sustainable EU food system initiative, according to the commission’s website. The framework was meant to integrate sustainability into all food-related policies, including for food labelling and public procurement.
• BLUE MILESTONE: The UN Environment Programme’s World Conservation Monitoring Centre announced that 10% of the global ocean is officially protected; however, the figure needs to triple for the world to meet its conservation commitments by 2030, according to EFE Verde.

§ Spotlight

Return of UK’s tallest bird

This week, Carbon Brief reports on how cranes, the UK’s tallest bird at more than 1 metre high, are making a remarkable comeback from extinction.

Standing at more than 1m with a 2m wingspan, cranes are comfortably the tallest bird in the UK.

Hundreds of years ago, they were a common sight in the UK. But, in the 1600s, they went extinct in the UK, due to overhunting and the large-scale loss of their wetland habitat. (Henry III reportedly served 115 cranes at one of his Christmas feasts in 1251.)

However, in 1979, a small number of wild cranes flew in from Europe and settled in Norfolk, eastern England. As efforts to restore and protect the UK’s wetland habitats have grown over the past few decades, so has the number of cranes.

In 2025, cranes had a record breeding season in the UK, with 87 pairs raising 37 chicks, according to data from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB). This has brought the total number of cranes in the country to around 250, says the charity.

Cranes and carbon

The majority of the UK’s growing crane population can be found in wetland areas that have been actively restored and protected by the RSPB and other conservation groups.

This includes Lakenheath Fen, a former carrot field in Suffolk, eastern England, that over the past 30 years has been restored into a diverse wetland habitat for birds, otters and water voles, among other species.

Cranes first arrived at Lakenheath from Europe in 2007, site manager Dave Rodgers explained to Carbon Brief:

“The conditions we created – a patchwork of developing reedbed, interspersed with shallowly flooded areas – were perfect for cranes. In 2007, there was an influx of birds from Europe. Two pairs flew over Lakenheath, landed and they’ve been nesting here ever since.”

As well as providing a home for cranes and other vulnerable water birds, the restoration of Lakenheath Fen and other sites like it is also helping to reduce the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions.

This is because Lakenheath Fen is a peatland.

Peatlands are waterlogged environments where plants decay very slowly, eventually forming a carbon-rich soil called peat. Across the world, peatlands cover just 3% of land area, but store more carbon than all of Earth’s trees combined.

In the UK, around 80% of all peatlands are degraded, with the greenhouse gases they emit accounting for around 5% of the country’s total emissions.

Rodgers explained:

“By re-wetting the peat, we’re almost completely preventing further loss of carbon from the soil.”

Flying future

According to the RSPB, cranes are now found at multiple wetland sites in the south-east and south-west of England. Some have even settled as far as Scotland.

With wetland restoration taking place across the country, including in cities such as London and Bristol, it is likely the birds will continue to spread to new areas, said Rodgers:

“There are a lot of wetlands around the country that would be suitable for cranes to nest in that are not currently occupied.

“With care, we should see cranes expand more widely across the country so that people who don’t currently have them might see them within the next 10 years.” 

§ Watch, read, listen

NEW CHANCE FOR BEAVERS: A video from the Guardian showed the positive effects of the reintroduction of beavers into the wild in England.

INKCAP RELAUNCH: The UK online nature publication, Inkcap, headed by former Carbon Brief journalist Sophie Yeo, has relaunched with a new look.

BIRDS ARE BACK: Mongabay covered five bird species thought extinct that were rediscovered in 2025.

GREAT SHIFT: This Nature Answers podcast told the story of a community in Côte d’lvoire, where farmers moved from climate scepticism to adopting climate-adaptation measures.

§ New science

• Many insects in the tropics are already approaching their heat limits – the upper bound of the temperatures at which they can live | Nature
• More than 8,000 species could face increased exposure to wildfires by 2100 as a result of climate change under a moderate-warming scenario | Nature Climate Change
• Two temperate tree species, European beech and downy oak, can adapt to rising temperatures – but not when those high temperatures are accompanied by drought | Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

§ In the diary

• 10 April: Djibouti presidential election
• 12 April: Hungary presidential election
• 13-18 April: World Bank/International Monetary Fund spring meetings | Washington DC
• 21-22 April: 17th Petersberg climate dialogue | Berlin, Germany
• 21-25 April: UNFCCC climate week 1 | Yeosu, South Korea

Cropped is researched and written by Dr Giuliana Viglione, Aruna Chandrasekhar, Daisy Dunne, Orla Dwyer and Yanine Quiroz.  Please send tips and feedback to cropped@carbonbrief.org

§ Justification for ‘new energy’ system

As the conflict has intensified, several Chinese-language outlets have put the spotlight on China’s clean-energy infrastructure. 

The tensions highlight the “importance” of energy security and the energy transition, writes Bo’ao forum secretary-general Zhang Jun in a commentary for the Communist party-affiliated People’s Daily.  

The China Youth Daily, a party-run newspaper oriented towards younger readers, says the conflict has “exacerbated” fragile energy supply chains, underscoring the need to “develop ‘new energy’ sources for energy security”.

Building “localised” clean-energy capacity is a “strategic necessity”, as well as an important aspect of climate action, writes Wang Ning, associate researcher at the government-affiliated Institute of World Economy in the state-supporting Global Times.

Meanwhile, Liu Ying, research fellow at Renmin University’s Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, tells state news agency Xinhua that China is well-placed to benefit if the crisis catalyses a “restructuring of the global energy order” and hastens uptake of solar and wind power.

Echoing this sentiment, WeChat account Photovoltaic News, which is run by an unnamed individual, says: “New energy is precisely the core of China’s strength.”

§ Coal is king?

However, the broader commentary on the war has tended to emphasise China’s “all-of-the-above” approach to the energy transition.

State broadcaster CCTV ran a segment on 6 April underscoring Chinese president Xi Jinping’s focus on the “need to accelerate the planning and construction of a new energy system to ensure energy security”. The broadcast did not explicitly mention the conflict.

It said Xi also emphasised “coordinating” hydropower development with ecological conservation, “actively” building nuclear power in a “safe and orderly manner” and ensuring energy supply by “strengthening” development of the energy system across production, supply, storage and sales.

A “greener, more diversified and more resilient” energy system will “provide a strong guarantee for China’s energy security and economic development”, CCTV added, but it also emphasised the need to develop “clean and efficient” fossil fuels.

A “sharp commentary” in the People’s Daily – a designation for comments that the newspaper finds important – says that a range of initiatives, from “diversified energy imports” to “vigorous development of green energy” allowed China to “secure its energy supply” and “take the initiative in energy security”.

Similarly, an editorial in commercial news outlet 21st Century Business Herald says that China is “less likely to face direct impacts from this oil crisis” because of its reliance on both coal and renewables. 

It also notes the opportunity that the conflict represented in terms of greater global demand for Chinese clean-energy technology.

Coal’s role in the energy mix as a “ballast” and “peak-shaving” tool “continues to strengthen”, says economic news outlet Jiemian – although the outlet also acknowledges China’s “vigorous” clean-energy additions.

Pro-coal accounts on WeChat especially emphasise the fuel’s role in the crisis. 

Coal will “continue to serve as the cornerstone of energy supply”, says Coal Vision, a WeChat account run by Xiamen Zhengzhuo Trading, a firm that trades coal and other commodities. 

Similarly, Guizhou Coal Data argues: “When a real emergency strikes, you have to ask: which energy source do we truly control? There’s only one answer: coal.” The account is run by the information services firm Guizhou Yuteng Coal Industry Big Data Information Center.

Several outlets also highlight China’s efforts to secure gas supplies from elsewhere. 

Wen Shaoqing, columnist at nationalist outlet Guancha, writes that an agreement between China and Turkmenistan shortly after the conflict began that reaffirmed plans to develop a new gas pipeline represented a “strategic” move to secure the “nation’s survival”.

Notably, two articles in Guancha summarising foreign outlets’ coverage of China’s response – both emphasising the role renewable energy played in insulating China from the energy shock – also received more than 100,000 views.

§ Security in coal chemicals 

Meanwhile, Xinhua has published an article on “turning China’s advantage in coal resources into an advantage in developing natural gas”, although it does not explicitly mention Iran. 

It adds that the head of China’s state-owned PetroChina Coalbed Methane Co has argued that coalbed methane could “propel China from [being] an energy giant to an energy powerhouse”.

Shortly after the Xinhua article was published, Jiemian said China had a responsibility to develop coalbed methane to “secure our energy self-sufficiency”.

Similarly, several news outlets have covered the “boon” that the war might be for China’s coal-chemical industry.

An article posted by WeChat account Xinghai Intelligence Bureau argues that China’s development of a coal-chemical industry, rather than “new energy”, is what prepared it for “worst-case scenarios” such as the war. The account is run by technology media company Beijing Lightspeed Time Network Technology.

Finance news outlet EastMoney says that the “strategic value” of China’s coal-chemical industry will likely rise “against the backdrop of growing global instability”.