The Carbon Brief Profile: India

Jocelyn Timperley

In the fifth article of a series explaining how large emitters are positioned to tackle climate change, Carbon Brief sets out India’s key policy developments, pledges and statistics…India is the world’s third largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs), after China and the US.[contentbox id=”29536″]Coal power plants, rice paddies and cattle are major sources of emissions, which continue to rise steeply, although per-capita emissions remain well below the global average.India is also very vulnerable to climate change, notably due to the melting of the Himalayan glaciers and changes to the monsoon.The country has pledged a 33-35% reduction in the “emissions intensity” of its economy by 2030, compared to 2005 levels.It is holding a general election this year throughout April and May, with polls projecting a minority win for current prime minister, Narendra Modi.(Update 24/05/2019: After a lengthy election process, the BJP under Modi – who has often emphasised the importance of tackling climate change – secured a decisive victory towards the end of May. More than 600 million people voted of the 900 million who were eligible to take part in the largest election that has ever taken place.)
Infographic by Tom Prater for Carbon Brief 

§ Politics

1.3 billionsixthGDPfastest growingexpectedfirst won officeBharatiya Janata PartyIndian National Congresstoldon900 million peoplehugely complexopinion pollsRahul Gandhi
Image - Prime minister Narendra Modi with French president Emmanuel Macron at Hyderabad House, New Delhi, on 10 March 2018. Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo. - Prime Minister Narendra Modi with French President Emmanuel Macron at Hyderabad House, to co-chair the founding conference of the International Solar Alliance (ISA). 10 March 2018, New Delhi, India. Credit: Newscom / Alamy Stock Photo. M7BAF1 (note)
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India has the world’s second largest population, at . Its economy ranks globally in terms of gross domestic product (), just after the UK, and is the world’s major economy. India’s population is to become the world’s largest by 2025, overtaking China and peaking at 1.7 billion in 2060.Modi in May 2014. His party, the Hindu nationalist (BJP), was the first in 30 years to win an outright parliamentary majority. The BJP won 31% of the vote and 52% of seats; the centre-left (INC) came second with 19% of votes and 8% of seats.Modi has portrayed India as a responsible participant in international climate politics. In 2018, he world leaders that climate change is the “greatest threat to the survival and human civilisation as we know it”.India will begin its election 11 April 2019, with the final ballot cast on 19 May and the results expected on 23 May. Around are eligible to vote. The election result is to predict. However, in January-February 2019 generally show an expected minority or slight majority win for Modi’s party. The INC, led by – son and grandson of two former prime ministers – is expected to come second.India’s , adopted in , says the state shall “endeavour to protect and improve the environment” and “safeguard [India’s] forests and wildlife”. Its 2006 aimed to integrate environmental protection into the development process.In 2002, India hosted the eighth formal meeting of the (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) in New Delhi. This meeting adopted the , which called for developed countries to needed to cut emissions and adapt to climate change to developing countries. This a key priority for India at climate talks. The issue of how to fairly share up ambition, known as “”, also to be a strong concern for India.Three-quarters of Indians are very concerned about global warming, according to a 2015 from the Pew Research Centre, the highest share of all the Asian countries surveyed. In another 2017 , 47% called climate change a “major threat” to their country, second only the threat of ISIS. 13% of India’s population have access to electricity, while still relies on traditional biomass (dung, wood, etc) for cooking. Modi has to ensure all Indian homes are connected with electricity, for the end of March 2019, although the quality of power access for many. 

§ Paris pledge

negotiating blocsBASICLMDCG77 + ChinaCfRNdatacompiledPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Researchstood atratifiedclimate pledgeNDCParis climate talksemissions intensityanalysis
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Glossary
Capacity vs Generation: Capacity is the potential for generation of energy measured in watts (or kilowatts, etc), whereas generation is the actual energy amount generated measured in watt-hours (or kilowatt-hours, etc). A power station with 1000 MW capacity could potentially generate 1000 MWh (megawatt-hours) in an hour, or 8,760,000 MWh in a year. However, in reality, it never would because power plants require down-time for maintenance, the market may not need its electricity, or, in the case of renewables, the sun might have set, or the wind stopped blowing.
Capacity vs Generation: Capacity is the potential for generation of energy measured in watts (or kilowatts, etc), whereas generation is the actual energy amount generated measured in watt-hours (or kilowatt-hours, etc). A power station with… Read More
carbon sinkclimate financetechnology transfercapacity buildingestimates2C goal1.5C limitClimate Action Tracker1.5C compatibleNational Electricity Planuse
Image - A “barefoot” solar engineer from Tinginaput, India, passes on her skills to other villagers teaching them how to make a solar lamp. Credit: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development. - A “barefoot” solar engineer from Tinginaput, India, passes on her skills to other villagers teaching them how to make a solar lamp. Credit: Abbie Trayler-Smith / Panos Pictures / Department for International Development. (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0) (note)
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India is part of four at international climate talks. These are , a coalition of the four major emerging economies with Brazil, South Africa and China; the like-minded developing countries (); the ; and the Coalition for Rainforest Nations ().Its GHG emissions in 2015 stood at 3,571m tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e), according to by the (PIK). Emissions increased over three-fold since 1970.India’s per capita emissions 2.7tCO2e in 2015, around a seventh of the US figure and less than half the world average of 7.0tCO2e. (See “note on infographic” at the end of this article for details on use of 2015 data).India the Paris Agreement on 2 October 2016, almost exactly a year after it submitted its , or “nationally determined contribution” (), for the .The pledge is for a 33-35% reduction in emissions associated with each unit of economic output (“”) by 2030, compared to 2005 levels. Carbon Brief at the time found India’s emissions could increase 90% between 2014 and 2030, even if the pledge is met.India also aims for 40% of its installed electricity capacity to be renewable or nuclear by 2030.It further outlines plans to increase tree cover to create an additional cumulative of 2,500-3,000MtCO2e by 2030 –  roughly on a par with its total emissions across one year.The pledge says India’s goals represent the “utmost ambitious action in the current state of development” and criticises the “tepid and inadequate” response of developed countries to global warming. “India, even though not a part of the problem, has been an active and constructive participant in the search for solutions,” it says.India is clear that implementation of its pledge will depend heavily on , and support from developed countries. In total, it it will need at least $2.5tn up to 2030, from both domestic and international funds.India’s NDC is consistent with the of the Paris Agreement, but not the , according to (CAT), an independent analysis of climate pledges produced by three research organisations. However, the top end of India’s policy range is , says CAT.India is now on track to overachieve its Paris targets, after adopting its final (NEP) in 2018, says CAT.The country could achieve its 40% non-fossil power capacity target more than a decade early, through the of hydroelectricity and nuclear power, adds CAT. India’s emissions intensity in 2030 will be around 50% below 2005 levels, CAT projects, far ahead of the 33-35% target.A less rosy assessment comes from , a research and NGO partnership which aims to spark ambitious climate action. It India’s NDC is compatible with limiting temperature rise to below 2C, but that current (2018) policies fall short of this.The Indian government is considering long-term growth strategies for 2030-2045, which would “” carbon emissions from economic growth, says CAT. India has it may be willing to increase its climate pledge in 2020. However, it yet translated the Paris Agreement goals into domestic law.India published its (NAPCC) in 2008, split into eight missions on diverse aspects of climate mitigation and adaptation policy. Each of the eight missions is discussed in the relevant sections, below.India’s states are also required to produce . Some of these include emissions reduction commitments, e-mobility policies or solar and wind capacity quotas. 

§ Coal

second largestplateauedexpectpeak in 2014more than tripled
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BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018HighchartsJanuary 2019coal plantsGlobal Coal Plant Trackerpipelineshrunkprojectsdraft NEParguestranded assetsongoing debatefalling costslower-than-expectedrepeatedly revised downrecentconcernhealth impactreportLancet Planetary Healthhalfsignificant impact
Image - Coal being sorted by size and quality, Meghalaya, India. Credit: National Geographic Image Collection / Alamy Stock Photo. - Coal being sorted by size and quality, Meghalaya, India. Credit: National Geographic Image Collection / Alamy Stock Photo. EB4DH0 (note)
set new emissions standardsnot complied withsecond largestCoal Indialargestaround 84%provenaroundhopescometargetmaysaysstepscoal “cesscollectedexpected tosubsidieslargelymakes upjust transitionreportedlylittle discussionvocational programmetarget sector
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India is the world’s coal consumer after China, having overtaken the US in 2015.Moreover, Chinese coal use has , meaning India could largely determine the global trajectory for the fuel. Many analysts rapid growth in India to drive increases in global demand over the next few years – though this is expected to remain below a .Coal has fuelled the rapid growth in Indian electricity use and its coal fleet has in size since 2000. In 2017, coal generated 76% of India’s electricity, as shown in the chart below (black area).Electricity generation in India by fuel, 1985-2017 (Terawatt hours). Source: . Chart by Carbon Brief using .As of , India has 221 gigawatts (GW) of operating . This is the world’s third largest fleet, with 11% of global capacity, according to the . Another 36GW is being built and a further 58GW is at earlier stages of development. This of new plants is rapidly drying up, however, having by more than a quarter since last year and more than five-fold since 2014.The government currently there will be 238GW of coal capacity in 2027. An earlier had no plans for coal expansion before 2022, bar the 50GW already being built. However, the final version included more than 90GW of planned coal-fired capacity, which some now risks becoming “”. Abandoning plans to build new coal-fired plants could make India’s policies 1.5C compatible, says CAT.There is about the extent to which new coal will actually get built in India, as well as how often existing plants will run, given for renewables and growth in electricity demand. Forecasts for Indian coal demand growth have been and one analysis said a large proportion of the pipeline of new coal plants could be cancelled.There is in India over the of coal plants. One in every eight deaths in India is due to air pollution, according to a recent in the , while India is home to of the world’s 20 most polluted cities. The falling cost of solar power and batteries is also having a on the sector.In 2015, India for air pollution from coal plants for compliance in 2017, with looser standards for older plants. However, the standards were and India’s supreme court has now extended the deadline for meeting them to 2022.India is the coal producer and importer, after China. , the national coal mining company and coal producer in the world, accounts for of domestic output. India has coal reserves of 98bn tonnes, or 9.5% of the world total, again second only to China.The government to end imports, which from Indonesia, South Africa and Australia. It has a for Coal India to reach 1,000Mt of production by 2019-20, up from 650Mt in 2018-19, although timeline be relaxed.India it needs to use coal to secure “reliable, adequate and affordable supply of electricity”, but that it has also taken to improve the efficiency of its coal plants.In 2010, it introduced a ” (tax). This $12bn from 2010-2018. It is bring in $1bn more in 2019 and 2020. However, for coal also remain high, at $2.3bn in 2016, as tax breaks to the mining sector.Coal almost half of local revenues in some states in India, meaning a move away from it would require policies to ensure a “” for coal workers. There is on this in India. However, a major launched in 2015, to boost youth employment, has renewables as a .Interactive map of historical and planned coal power plants in India 

§ Low-carbon energy

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Image - Gujarat Solar Park, in Gujarat, India, in 2013. It now has an installed capacity of 1637 MW. Credit: Ashley Cooper / Alamy Stock Photo. - Gujarat Solar Park, in Gujarat, India, in 2013. It now has an installed capacity of 1637 MW. Credit: Ashley Cooper / Alamy Stock Photo. DRMTM7 (note)
International Institute for Sustainable DevelopmentsaysElectricity ActsetCarbon Briefaround 350GWsaid72GWnow hopesgivingNEP2016 revised Tariff Policyobligesbuy a proportionNational Solar Missionis supposed toplansreportbiggest solar parkssaysWood Mackenziefourthinstalledauctions
Image - Wind turbines near Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu, India. Credit: dbimages / Alamy Stock Photo. - Wind turbines near Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu, India. Credit: dbimages / Alamy Stock Photo. AX6FAM (note)
fallenalsoaimsNoneaccordingCPIindoor air pollutionalready reachedhas around 4.5GWcurrentlytargetsdebateprosconslargest reserveslong-term interestunlikely
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India is for its rapid expansion of renewables in recent years. In 2017, renewable and topped fossil fuels for first time. However, 15.5% of India’s electricity came from renewables in 2017, including 9.1% from large hydro. solar PV prices mean coal-based power is with electricity distributors. However, as the penetration of renewables in the grid increases, new policies, such as smart grids, will be to adapt to the variable supply.Overall, subsidies to renewables in India increased from $431m in the 2014 financial year to $1.4bn in 2016, the (IISD) . Support to coal, oil and gas was still around six times this in 2016, IISD notes.India used its back in 2003 to begin promoting renewable electricity. In 2015, it a goal to install 175GW of renewable energy capacity by 2022, consisting of 100GW solar, 60GW onshore wind,10GW bioenergy and 5GW small hydro. This could replace roughly 70GW of coal, according to a guest post last year. India’s total current capacity, including fossil fuel and low-carbon plants, is .In June 2018, India’s power minister Raj Kumar Singh he expects India to have built or commissioned all 175GW by March 2020. Renewables reached by September 2018.Singh also said in 2018 that he country to reach 225GW renewables by 2022. However, this target may be due to the government large hydropower the status of being “renewable”. India’s most recent projects that 275GW renewables will be installed by 2027.Its power distributors and some large electricity users to of their energy from renewable sources. It also waives inter-state transmission charges for solar and wind energy.India launched its “” in 2010, one of the eight NAPCC missions. Its original target was 20GW solar by 2022, but this was increased in 2015 to 100GW. Rooftop solar account for 40% of this.India also 2GW of off-grid solar by 2022, including 20m solar lights in rural areas.By August 2018, 23GW of solar had been installed or commissioned, according to India’s recently submitted biennial to the UNFCCC. It is building many of the world’s .However, short-term financial uncertainty due to changing taxes on solar and tariff renegotiations could mean India misses the 100GW target, consultancy firm .India is the largest wind power globally, after China, the US and Germany. Around 34GW of onshore wind had been by mid-2018, triple the level seen a decade ago. India is using to reach its 2022 wind target.The price of solar has by almost two-thirds since 2014, while the price of onshore wind has halved, India’s biennial report says.India to install 5GW of offshore wind by 2022 and 30GW by 2030. has yet been installed, however.India’s renewable energy potential is around 1,100GW for commercially exploitable sources, the biennial report says. This includes 300GW wind and 750GW solar power. The country could integrate 390GW of low-cost wind and solar generation into its grid by 2030, to the Climate Policy Initiative ().India’s climate pledge notes that around 70% of its population depends on traditional biomass energy, which is inefficient and causes high levels of . India is promoting the use of biomass to generate electricity instead, which it says is cleaner and more efficient. India is targeting 10GW of such bioenergy by 2022 and had 9GW in 2018.India of small hydro (plants below 25MW), against a 5GW target for 2022. Including large hydro, capacity sat at 45GW in 2018, up from 30GW in 2005. India’s climate pledge says it will “aggressively pursue development of the country’s vast hydro potential”.India’s government views nuclear power as a “safe, environmentally benign and economically viable” source of electricity, according to its 2015 climate pledge. It has 6.8GW of nuclear capacity and a nine-fold increase to 63GW by 2032. However, there is ongoing in the country on the and of nuclear energy.India also has one of the world’s of thorium – seen as a safer alternative to existing nuclear fuels – and has a in experimental thorium reactors. However, substantial generation is until at least the 2050s, if at all. 

§ Energy efficiency

pridedemissions intensityEnergy Conservation ActBureau of Energy Efficiencysaysvoluntary goalNational Mission for Enhanced Energy Efficiencytargets
Image - Bricks lined up to dry at a brick manufacturing facility in Amritsar, Punjab, India. Credit: GURPREET SINGH / Alamy Stock Photo. - Bricks lined up to dry at a brick manufacturing facility in Amritsar, Punjab, India. Credit: GURPREET SINGH / Alamy Stock Photo. JMWXEX (note)
Perform, Achieve and Tradecementsell their energy saving certificatessaysextendedseveralmore efficientceiling fansencouragementfinancial instrumentspartial risk guaranteesventure capitalnational smart grid missionrating systemanotheraction plancooling energy requirementssignificantaimssubsidisingso far.
India has long itself on its energy efficiency and achievements.Its 2001 established the , which was tasked with reducing the energy intensity of the economy.India it is on track to meet its of cutting emissions intensity 20-25% by 2020, compared to 2005 levels. However, it also notes how little energy is used by the average Indian citizen, compared to those in other countries.In 2010, India launched its (NMEEE), another of the eight NAPCC missions. This an eventual 20GW in avoided electricity generating capacity and 23m tonnes of fuel savings per year.The market-based (PAT) scheme is its main initiative. This limits the consumption of energy-intensive industries, including thermal power plants, iron and steel, and . Overachievers can to those that have fallen short.Its first cycle led to savings of 31MtCO2e between 2012 and 2015, the government , which is around 1% of India’s current annual emissions. The scheme has been times to cover more and more sectors.Other NMEEE schemes include support for appliances, such as , for financiers to engage in energy efficiency and the use of , such as and , to support energy efficiency.India also has a , a to evaluate the energy performance of buildings and for small industries to support more environmentally friendly manufacturing.It recently released a new to cut – a driver of electricity demand growth – 25-40% by 2038. The plan also aims to cut refrigerant demand by 25-30% by the same year.The government to replace India’s 14m conventional street lights with LEDs by 2019. It is also the rollout of LEDs in homes, with 312m distributed  

§ Transport

fifthgrow oil demandpromotesonlyonly 0.6%remains lowaround 1.5mtypically used
Image - Electric rickshaw carrying villagers at Mangalbari bustee, Chalsa in Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal, India. Credit: Biswarup Ganguly / Alamy Stock Photo. - Electric Rickshaw carrying villagers at Mangalbari bustee, Chalsa in Jalpaiguri district of West Bengal, India. Credit: Biswarup Ganguly / Alamy Stock Photo. R700AX (note)
National Mission for Electric Mobilityend by 2030rowed backnow targetingaimsFAMErickshawsextended$1.2bnSeveral individual statesfinalisedless stringentnational biofuels policyfallen well shortupdatedfourth-largest in the worldset tohigh-speed linethirddedicated freight corridors
Image - A coal train passes through a station in Jaipur, India. Credit: Sandra Foyt / Alamy Stock Photo. - A coal train passes through a station in Jaipur, India. Credit: Sandra Foyt / Alamy Stock Photo. M4W32A (note)
only representedrapid expansionfastest growingaimsset to becomecouldsignatoryCorsianot signed upinland water transport
India currently has the world’s largest car sales. These are expected to with rising incomes and rapid urbanisation, with strong implications for global .The government the uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), although so far India has 260,000 – including two-wheelers and hybrids – and, overall, of sales are EVs. The rollout of charging stations .It also has electric rickshaws, although these are only for short journeys.In 2011, India set up its , which aimed to promote electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid manufacturing. In 2017, then-power minister Piyush Goyal said petrol and diesel car sales should . But the government has since on this aim, a 30% share of sales for EVs by 2030. It also for all new urban buses to be fully electric by 2030.In 2015, India launched its scheme to subsidise electric and hybrid cars, mopeds, and buses. This was recently with a fresh $1.4bn over three years. Of this, is earmarked for subsidies and $140m for charging infrastructure. have also rolled out policy initiatives to support EVs.India its first passenger vehicle fuel efficiency standards in 2014. These entered force in 2017 and will be tightened in 2022, though even then they will be than current standards in the EU.Its 2009 had an “aspirational” target to blend 20% biofuels into the diesel and petrol mix by 2017. However, India has of these targets, so far reaching only around 2% bioethanol and 0.1% biodiesel blend in 2018. It its biofuels policy in 2018, proposing a 20% blend of bioethanol and 5% of biodiesel by 2030.India’s railway system is the in terms of rail track length. It is second only to China in terms of rail passenger activity, with this grow more than any other country, tripling by 2050.Around half of India’s conventional rail tracks are electrified, although its first is still under construction. A of India’s land freight is carried by rail, a high proportion by global standards, with coal by far the main commodity.India plans to increase the share of railways in total land transport from 36% to 45%, its climate pledge says, including through development of .Aviation 1% of India’s emissions in 2014, well below the world average, but its means this has already likely increased. India has the world’s domestic aviation market, with a 19% rise seen last year alone. It to construct around 100 new airports in the next 10-15 years and is the world’s third largest market by 2020. Passenger numbers for domestic and international flights have already doubled since 2010 and triple to 520 million by 2037.India is a to , the UN aviation emission offset scheme, although it has for the voluntary pilot phase set to begin in 2021.Its climate pledge outlines plans to promote coastal shipping and , due to their fuel efficiency and cost effectiveness. 

§ Oil and gas

made uprising fastmore than doublecouldfallingconsumption subsidiesfellreformsoil pricesongoinghighlighted“Give it Up”subsidyLPG cooking gasimpactsexpectedroad-buildingnever playedonly 6%currently importsQatarUSRussiarisingstrugglesaimscitingsubstantial potentialdomestic gas and oil reservespanelconcludedreportedly
India relies on large amounts of oil, which 29% of total energy consumption in 2017. Its oil demand is and could by 2040.This means it soon overtake China as the top driver of global oil demand growth. However, its own oil production is .The government has provided large to both oil and gas. Between 2014 and 2016, subsidies by almost 75% to $6.8bn, due to and falling . Further reforms are .India has its use of subsidy cuts and petrol and diesel tax rises to address climate concerns. For example, a campaign launched by the Indian government encourages more affluent citizens to voluntarily give up their for .However, price changes in fuels such as kerosene – widely used for lighting and cooking in India – could have large on those without access to electricity.Diesel consumption is to rise, supported by large government spending on ,Gas has a prominent role in India’s energy mix, making up of energy consumption in 2017. India around half its gas, largely from , the , Australia and .However, gas consumption is in India, although its higher price means it to compete with coal and fuel oil. The government to more than double the share of gas in the energy mix to 15% by 2022, the environmental benefits of adopting it as a “cleaner fuel”. Domestic production is low and India will likely continue to be highly reliant on imports, despite the “” of its .A parliamentary recently that more than half of the country’s 25GW of gas power plants had been “stranded” by a lack of domestic gas and the high price of imports. India has considered “emergency stockpiles” of gas, similar to strategic oil reserves. 

§ Agriculture and forests

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Image - Workers in rice paddy fields, Kashmir, India. Credit: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo. - Workers in rice paddy fields, Kashmir, India. Credit: robertharding / Alamy Stock Photo. B5A3T8 (note)
two-thirdshasNational Mission for Sustainable Agriculturerice productioncrop diversificationchemical-free farmingsoil healthpilotneem coating of ureaaround 70%installedtotal 21manother 2.5mstudy
Image - A herd of Indian cows near Mount Abu hill in Rajasthan, India. Credit: Kailash Kumar / Alamy Stock Photo. - A herd of Indian cows near Mount Abu hill in Rajasthan, India. Credit: Kailash Kumar / Alamy Stock Photo. PG4NFB (note)
goaladditional forest and tree coverGreen India Missionaimsincentiveslinking itsome argue
Agriculture is responsible for 16% of India’s GHG emissions. Of this, 74% is due to methane produced from livestock – largely cows and buffalo – and . The remaining 26% comes from nitrous oxide emitted from .Nearly of the population rely on farming as their source of livelihood. India 15% of the global cattle population, with around 300m cows and buffalo in 2014. It produces 19% of the world’s milk.India will also need to substantially increase food grain production to feed its growing population, its climate pledge says. But droughts and floods are “frequent” and the sector is “already facing a high degree of climate variability,” it adds.India’s (NMSA), another of its eight NAPCC missions, aims to tackle agricultural emissions and enhance food security.The country’s many initiatives include promotion of lower methane emission , away from rice, and projects. A policy introduced in 2015 made compulsory to reduce nitrous oxide emissions.Irrigation using highly inefficient water pumps accounts for of the energy consumption of agriculture. India has 200,000 solar water pumps – about 1% of the country’s , with planned.India’s forest cover has increased in recent years, its climate pledge says, becoming a net CO2 sink. A recent found India accounted for 7% of the global net increase in leaf area from 2000-2017.Its long-term goal is to bring 33% of its area under forest cover – some 109m hectares – up from 24% in 2013 (79m hectares).Another is to absorb 2,500-3,000MtCO2 by 2030 through . According to CAT, over half of this target could be achieved by the , launched in 2014, which to expand tree cover by 5m hectares and increase the quality of another 5m hectares of existing cover in 10 years. India’s government also offers for state action to increase forest cover by to funding allocations.However, India’s data exaggerates its true forest cover and masks ongoing deforestation. 

§ Impacts and adaptation

“Few countries in the world are as vulnerable to the effects of climate change as India is with its vast population that is dependent on the growth of its agrarian economy, its expansive coastal areas and the Himalayan region and islands.”

points outalready highly vulnerablerisencouldWorld Bankstudychanging monsoon rainfall patterns
Image - The Indus river flowing through the Ladakh range of the Himalayas.Credit: Parvesh Jain / Alamy Stock Photo. - The Indus river flowing through the Ladakh range of the Himalayas. Credit: Parvesh Jain / Alamy Stock Photo. MMHB4G (note)
critical water source reportmalariadenguebothincreasesWorld BankalreadyLancet Countdown on Health and Climate Changecouldat riskdisaster management actdisaster management planframeworksprotecting the Himalayan ecosystemwaterresearch and developmentsubmitted
India dedicates a large part of its 2015 climate pledge to outlining current and expected adverse impacts on the country. It says:In its biennial report, it similarly it is to natural disasters, such as floods, droughts and cyclones, with these risks compounded by changing demographics and socio-economic conditions.India’s annual mean temperature has already by around 1.0C since 1850.The country see $1.2tn of “lost GDP” in total, plus lower living standards for nearly half its population by 2050, compared to a scenario with no climate change, according to a 2018 . The losses would be due to rising temperatures and , the study says..The Himalaya mountains, which form the most important concentration of snow outside the poles, are one particularly vulnerable part of India and the wider South Asia region. The glaciers are a for 250 million people who live in the region. A further 1.65 billion people in India and seven other countries rely on the major rivers that flow from it.A major released earlier this year found rising temperatures will melt at least a third of the region’s glaciers by 2100, even if average global temperature rises are limited to 1.5C.India is also vulnerable to increases in vector-borne diseases, such as and , which could see due to climate change.Heatwaves are also expected to be an issue, with 600 million people currently in locations that could become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050, according to the . India’s largely agricultural workforce was significantly impacted by extreme heat in 2017, according to the .India see significant sea level rise, affecting the river water systems that hundreds of millions rely on for food. Its 1,238 islands are also .The country’s came into force in 2005. This made no explicit mention of climate change, but aimed to move from a “response and relief” approach to “prevention-mitigation and preparedness”. In 2016, India launched a , which integrates the principles of the Paris Agreement alongside other global disaster risk reduction .India has dedicated one of its eight NAPCC missions to . Another two missions focus on and .Its most recent National Communication report under the UNFCCC – which includes an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation – was back in 2012. 

§ Climate finance

emphasis

“[O]ur efforts to avoid emissions during our development process are also tied to the availability and level of international financing and technology transfer since India still faces complex developmental challenges.”

saysaroundanalysisClean Technology Fund
Image - A monsoon brings flooding to Kolkata, India, 7 July 2017. Credit: Dipayan Bose / Alamy Stock Photo. - A monsoon hits Kolkata, India, 7 July 2017. Credit: Dipayan Bose / Alamy Stock Photo. JTYWCR (note)
analysisOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Developmentso faralbeit not exclusivelySeveraladaptation

Article information

Note on infographic

Data for energy consumption comes from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2018. Greenhouse gas emissions up to 2016 come from combining emissions data compiled by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).

The graph showing emissions by sector comes from combining two datasets. Values for methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases cover all sectors, including LULUCF, and come from the PIK primap database v2.0. Values for GHG emissions from LULUCF also come from the PIK primap database, however these are only available to 2015, and from the earlier v1.2 of the database.

This combined PIK primap database v1.2 and 2.0 data for GHG emissions in 2015 also shows India has the world’s third largest greenhouse gas emissions (inc LULUCF). India’s pledge to reduce the “emissions intensity” of its economy 33-35% by 2030, compared to 2005 levels, comes from its NDC submitted to the UN in 2015. Its aim for 40% of installed electricity capacity to be renewable or nuclear by 2030 also comes fro this pledge.

Per capita emissions in 2015 come from combining above 2015 figure for GHG emissions and India’s population in 2015 from the World Bank.

The remaining values come from the EDGAR CO2 emissions database, downloaded from the website OpenClimateData. The EDGAR categories described in full are as follows: Buildings (non-industrial stationary combustion: includes residential and commercial combustion activities); Transport (mobile combustion: road and rail and ship and aviation); Non-combustion (industrial process emissions and agriculture and waste); Industry (industrial combustion outside power and heat generation, including combustion for industrial manufacturing and fuel production); Power & heat (power and heat generation plants).

India has long put a key on the need for climate finance and technology transfer from developed to developing countries. Its climate pledge notes:India’s it will cost at least $2.5tn to implement its climate pledge, 71% of the combined required spending for all developing country pledges.India received by far the highest level of single-country funding ($725m) approved by multilateral climate funds in absolute terms from 2013 to 2016, according to Carbon Brief . The majority was from the (CTF) for renewable projects. However, per-capita funding was relatively low, at just $0.56 per person..On a wider level, India received on average $2.6bn per year in 2015 and 2016 in climate-related development finance, according to Carbon Brief of (OECD) data.India also has several domestic climate finance initiatives. As well as money spent through its eight national missions, its coal cess has collected $12bn, with proceeds used to finance clean energy, . programmes have also been allocated government funding.

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